Welcome Back Everyone! I am going to be releasing daily write-ups on some of my NCAAB plays so that things will be more transparent. Many people would like to know the ‘why’ when looking at my picks and parlays; so that is why I’m going back to article form on the days that I can. Best of luck today! If you are not in the Discord; Here is a link https://discord.gg/jXnghGR
South Carolina State @ Charlotte University – 6:00 P.M. Eastern Time
This match-up is not one that anyone is getting too excited about as it showcases two teams that have yet to win a game this year. However; there is a clear advantage that I’m seeing with the lines here. South Carolina State has clearly struggled to score the ball this season as they are (0-4) and they’re averaging just 58 PPG. What you might overlook is the schedule that South Carolina State has played. They played Appalachian State and lost 61-81. (South Carolina State took 80 shots in this game; That’s some serious fast paced basketball). The stat you might not know about this game is that APP. State who was defensively ranked in the top third of the country last year only allowing 67 PPG. This season APP State is (3-1) and is ranked 11 in the nation in opponent points allowed per game. South Carolina State then played Bowling Green who is one of the best scoring offenses in all of D1 basketball. (But one of the worst defenses as well). SC State fell short 78-101; ultimately showcasing that SC State is bleeding points on the defensive end; but can score when the opposing defense isn’t top tier. SC State then went on to play a Clemson team that is currently ranked 4th in all of college ball in opponent points per game. SC State has played some great defensive teams to kick off the season and today presents them with a feasible opponent in Charlotte U. Charlotte U is (1-1) on the year and they give up 71 PPG and score 61 PPG themselves. Charlotte U also played against a very tough defensive team in East Carolina where they were held to just 57 points. East Carolina is ranked 19th in D1 college ball in opponent PPG (56.3). Today should be a higher-tempo match-up where Charlotte should eclipse 75-80 points. On the flip side; SC State finally has a match-up where they will be somewhat effective on the offensive side of the ball. They should eclipse 65-70 points today. The OVER/UNDER is set right at 135.5 on the day. The public is on the UNDER. However; I think that this is a trap-match-up and I’m siding with the OVER here.
Notable Sats:
SC State is ranked 75th in Team Possessions per game. (76.6 Per game).
SC State is allowing opponents to shoot 51% from the floor this year. (Ranked 312th in NCAAB).
Charlotte U is allowing opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor. (Ranked 293rd in NCAAB).
The Pick: Charlotte U./ SC State – OVER 134.5 (DK Sportsbook)
Hampton/Norfolk State – 7:00 P.M. Eastern Time
It’s no secret that Hampton has one of the most high powered offenses in all of D1 Basketball as evidenced by them averaging 77.5 PPG last year. This year; they picked up right where they left off and had 82 points in their first game against George Washington. One important statistic is that Hampton and Norfolk State both averaged 71+ Possessions per game last year. Norfolk State definitely has the defensive advantage as they only gave up 64.9 PPG last year. However Norfolk State only averaged 70 PPG. Whereas Hampton gave up a whopping 79.2 PPG last season. Hampton absolutely has the advantage on the offensive side of things; but is vulnerable on the defensive side. This should honestly off-set each other. I expect Hampton to get there points as that’s clearly how they win games. Playing fast and getting up a lot of shots. Norfolk State will try to slow this game down but all it takes is a few hot streaks for Hampton to force Norfolk State into an uptempo game. With this being the case; I think the OVER/UNDER is set exactly where it should be and I will be avoiding that. But I do love Hampton today at (+8.5) Full game. I was thinking about taking the 1st Half too; but if Hampton digs themselves into a hole in the first half; I’d much rather trust them in a full 40 minutes to keep it with 8 points.
Notable Stats:
Hampton Averaged – 77.5 PPG and gave up 79.2 PPG last season.
Norfolk State only Averaged 68 PPG last season.
Hampton BEAT Norfolk State 64-53**
The Pick: Hampton (+8.5) Full Game (DK Sportsbook)
Lipscomb/SouthEast Missouri State – 7:30 P.M. Eastern Time
This match-up is going to be a slower one as both teams are ranked in the 200’s for Team possessions per game. This means that they naturally play slower paced games. On top of that; South East Missouri was ranked 302nd in team offensive efficiency. Lipscomb on the other hand was ranked 186th out of 353 teams in offensive efficiency. Lipscomb has the advantage in the defensive department as they ranked 268th in all of D1 college ball in defensive efficiency. Whereas; SEMU was ranked 325th in defensive efficiency. Lipscomb has also had a very tough schedule over their last 3 games playing against a above average Tulane team; Cincinnati, and followed by Arkansas. Arkansas is one of the most high scoring teams in the country and Lipscomb might have given up 86 points; but the total was just 136 combined points. Today Lipscomb is playing a SEMU squad who CLEARLY struggles on offense. I don’t think they will be able to keep up with Lipscomb today; but at the same time Lipscomb isn’t going to blow them out 20+. They just don’t have the offensive power either. I honestly like the UNDER in this game at 141.5 and the 1st H Cover for Lipscomb at (-2).
Notable Stats:
SEMU only returned 1 starter from last season & he is not the top player.
Lipscomb has had a tough schedule to start the year; but they were able to cover against Cincinnati two games ago.
The Picks:
Lipscomb 1H (-2) (DK SportsBook)
Lipscomb/SEMU – UNDER 141.5 Points (DK SportsBook)
Daily Fantasy Sports Blog 